The euro continued to decline for another week versus important currencies around the world as the some of the Eurozone member countries’ budget deficit is shunning investors from the region, considering the economic outlook in other parts of the world is significantly more attractive to investors.(…)
Read the rest of Another Euro Weekly Decline on EU’s Fiscal Crisis (138 words)

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Have the FRWC Just displayed the Industry’s First SUPER ROBOT?

In an extraordinary game-changing move, the FRWC is making an attempt to redefine the bounds of the currency exchange world. Have they just completely rewritten the autotrading currency exchange rulebook?

How will anyone else to contend with what the FRWC has done?

Forex Robot World Cup Fusion V 1.1a

Fasten your seatbelts and stand by to witness a spectacle that will outline the forex industry for the following decade!

Read more to find out if the FRWC has created the world’s first SUPER ROBOT!

Fusion V 1.1a scoops out 355.46% profit in nineteen days of Live Trading!

This is what’s being claimed about the Fusion V by the Forex Robot World Cup

• A Crowning accomplishment in EA design
• FIVE of the best robots combined into ONE
• Marvel of technology
• The best qualities of each with the drawbacks of none
• !Exclusive cash management rules that dish out risk more evenly!
• 100% total access to the EA Lab!
• Investor passwords for verification
• Exclusive cash management rules that apportion risk more evenly!
• 100% total access to the EA Lab!
• Investor passwords for verification!

Does their track record talk for itself?

Read more here : Fusion V 1.1a scoops out 355.46% profit in 19 days of Live Trading!

This isn’t the first hybrid Forex Robot to be released. Something similar was attempted with the Forex Bling suite of Forex Robots. However this does seem to be truly revolutionary work from the FRWC. Whether this is the perfect hybrid, it is too early to say. One thing we can say for sure is the automated currency exchange industry will ever be the same again…

Read more about the Fusion V 1.1a Forex Robot

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The big story of the week was the announcement by Dubai World, the investment arm of Dubai, that it is having trouble making payments on nearly $60 Billion. The funds were borrowed for various large-scale projects, ranging from man-made islands to massive hotels and skyscrapers, many of which are hemorrhaging money in the wake of the real estate crisis.

This announcement has implications both for the direct stakeholders in Dubai as well as for investors, generally. Dubai World’s bondholders were taken aback by its financial troubles, as well as by the suggestion of the United Arab Emirates that it would not come to the rescue. Apparently, it had always been assumed that oil-poor Dubai would be bailed out by its oil-rich neighbors in the event of insolvency. While it’s possible that this still applies, at the very least, investors will have to squirm/suffer a bit in the short-term. “Moody’s Investors Service and Standard & Poor’s cut the ratings on Dubai state companies yesterday, saying they may consider state-controlled Dubai World’s plan to delay debt payments a default.”

The news rattled forex markets, predictably sending “safe-haven” currencies (is anybody actually still using this term?) like the Dollar and Yen up, while sending everything else down. The reasoning is that the Dubai debt bomb could easily spread to other emerging market economies, triggering a wave of sovereign defaults and even a second credit crisis. Credit default swaps (which function as insurance against default) on emerging market bonds soared on the news, by 60% for Dubai bonds and 16% for Greece, for example. The situation has been likened to the defaults of Russia in 1998 of Argentina in 2002, both of which massively destabilized global capital markets at the time. Despite the recent gains, financial markets remain shaky and a sovereign default would likely reverberate around the financial world. “It will tarnish the reputation of the Gulf region a bit, and it will certainly make investors more bearish again about emerging markets,” explained one analyst.

At the same time, there are reasons to believe that this incident, should it erupt into a full-blown crisis, can easily be contained. For one thing, the situation in Dubai is unique. While many governments and institutions borrowed heavily during the height of the bubble, few came close to matching the scale and audacity of Dubai. In addition, Dubai doesn’t have any natural resources that it can fall back on during the ongoing recession; its pillar industries of tourism and finance were damaged heavily by the credit crisis, and it will be a while before they recover.

At the same time, some investors have been looking for a chance to “take profits” as the end of the year approaches and concerns mount that new bubbles might be forming in certain sectors of the market. “The news seems to have rattled a market already skeptical about the sharp rise in share prices in recent months. Financial instability in Vietnam and widening bond spreads in Greece and Spain have revived concerns that the global financial system is overleveraged.” Added another market observer: “This may be the trigger to allow for the market to take a rest and pull back. I felt that there would be a significant correction in what is an ongoing bull market.”

In the end, it’s hard to assess how significant this Dubai crisis actually is. As one analyst pointed out, the exposure of financial institutions to the UAE “is a negligible 0.4 percent of foreign banks’ total cross-border exposure.” Moreover, there’s not much of a connection between Dubai and China and Brazil, the latter of which largely escaped the economic downturn and have been two of the hottest performing economies over the last year. Still, with the end of the year approaching, investors will probably take this opportunity to book some of their profits so they can make a fresh start in 2010, which means December could see a small rally in the Dollar. For what it’s worth, that’s where my money is.

Karl Marx would be pleased…well, maybe not. In any event, the world’s Central Banks are tired of the weak Dollar, and are separately taking matters into their own hands. [Before I continue, I should probably acknowledge the inherent dangers of lumping every Central Bank together under one umbrella. Still, given the current market environment, and the fact that all Central Banks are acting uni-directionally, it seems like a fair categorization].

As I was saying, Central Banks – especially in the developing world – are extremely unhappy with the Dollar’s continued decline, and with the opposing strength in their respective currencies. Over the last year, these Central Banks have waded into the forex markets, one after another, in a non-concerted effort to stem the gains in their currencies. As the Dollar’s decline has gained new momentum, so have they redoubled and intensified their efforts.

In the last couple weeks alone, at least a dozen (and these are only the ones on my radar screen) have issued threats and/or taken action aimed directly at the “speculators,” which are blamed for the across-the-board rise in emerging market currencies and asset prices. Their concerns are twofold: that currency appreciation could choke off economic recovery, and that speculative investment is driving the creation of new asset price bubbles.

While their goals are largely the same, their tactics differ. Some are testing the old approach of simply buying Dollars on the spot market. Thailand, Israel, South Korea, Philipines, and Russia, for example, are now intervening heavily on a regular basis. “Experts estimate that some of the largest emerging economies may have spent as much as $150 billion on currency intervention over the past two months, judging from the growth of their international reserves, according to data from Brown Brothers Harriman.”

Other Central Banks have resorted to policy-making measures; Taiwan and Brazil are perhaps the best examples here. The former has essentially banned foreigners from opening new time deposits in the country, while the latter has just imposed a 1.5% tax on investment in Brazilian ADR shares to match the 2% tax on new FDI. In addition, sources claim that other measures are being considered, including “an overseas sovereign bonds issue denominated in Brazilian reals and a change in rules that would allow foreign equities investors to deposit guarantees overseas.”

South Korea and Sri Lanka have been even more creative in restraining their currencies. Sri Lanka is now making it easier for its citizens to take money out of the country, while South Korea is now placing limits on the hedging activities of exporters, who “have sold large amounts of dollars in the forward market to hedge foreign orders, putting upward pressure on the won.”

Still other Banks are still in the “rhetorical” stage of intervention, whereby they simply convey to investors that they are monitoring forex markets for “instability” and “irregularities.” Such code-words are designed to signal that rapid currency appreciation will not be accepted idly. “People see the central bank looking closely at the dollar and think maybe it’s a good time to unwind some of their positions,” explained one analyst in response to “rhetorical intervention” by the Bank of Chile.

Unfortunately for these Central Banks, their efforts are ultimately unlikely to be successful. They can probably succeed in slowing, or even temporarily halting the rise in their respective currencies, but won’t be able to achieve a permanent cessation. That’s because the forces they are fighting against are simply too large ($3 Trillion per day of forex turnover) and too determined (Russian and Brazilian interest rates are both above 8%, compared to 0% in the US) to be stopped. “It’s [intervention] not working, and it’s a good thing that it’s not working. Emerging-market currencies are appreciating and they’re going to keep on appreciating against currencies from the old world. [Central Banks] has to adapt to that,” declared one trader. Still, you can’t blame them for trying.

Subtle title, right? I couldn’t resist, considering that literally all economists and government officials (outside of China, of course) have sounded off on the Chinese Yuan in the last month. Recent additions to this list include President Obama, Chiefs of the IMF and World Bank, President of the Asian Development Bank, US Commerce Secretary Locke and Treasury Secretary Geithner, Nobel Laureate Paul Krugman, ECB Chief Jeane-Claude Trichet, Harvard University Professor Martin Feldstein, Japan’s finance minister…not to mention the thousands of others that didn’t make international news for their denunciation of China’s currency policy.

This rhetoric has also been accompanied by several important developments, including a Presidential visit to China, several meeting of the G20, a summit in Singapore, a slight change in the wording of China’s forex strategy, the release of economic data that suggest China’s economy is strengthening, etc. At the same time, their remains an obstinate  insistence from every corner of the CCP that despite this pressure, there are no imminent plans to further revalue. Investors are erring on the side of appreciation, however, and futures prices reflect a 3.5% rise in the value of the RMB over the next 12 months.

This disconnect is indicative of the fact that there is both a political and an economic side to this issue. When examined exclusively from either side, it looks like pretty cut-and-dried, since economics suggests that a revaluation is both necessary and desirable, but the misalignment of political interests suggests that it won’t be carried out any time soon.

More specifically, a chorus of economists (backed by hard data) is arguing that the RMB is one of the foremost causes of the widening imbalances. After a brief hiccup, China’s trade surplus is once again expanding, and is on pace to reach $300 Bill ion in 2009, more than half of which can be attributed to the US. Meanwhile, while GDP is projected at 10.5%, the rest of the world is still sputtering along. “China is ’stealing’ jobs from developing countries and hindering a global recovery by keeping the yuan low, Nobel laureate Paul Krugman says. ‘China’s bad behavior is posing a growing threat to the rest of the world economy.’ ”

Economists also argue that a revaluation would also be in China’s own best interest. Foreign capital is now pouring into China at a record pace – largely in anticipation of an imminent appreciation in the Yuan – such that asset prices have almost doubled over the last year. “Risks of asset-price bubbles and misallocation of resources amidst abundant liquidity need to be addressed,” said the Chief Economist from the World Bank. Echoed the head of the IMF: “An undervalued currency encourages companies to invest in ways that may not be viable once the currency rises. ‘If you have wrong prices, you make wrong decisions, especially concerning investment in the long run.’ ”

Foreign politicians, especially those from the US, have been hammering these points home. President Obama made the RMB a key issue during his visit to China this week. Senator Chris Dodd chimed in with his two cents, that “You can’t give your competitor, your adversary in this case, a 40 percent advantage in global economies.” As analysts pointed out, the US, unfortunately, doesn’t have any leverage on this issue, as it is basically dependent on China to fund its budget deficits through Treasury Purchases. Thus, Chinese Prime Minister Hu JinTao couldn’t even be bothered as to so much mention the RMB when summarized the meeting with Obama for reporters.

Other Chinese Ministers rebuffed reporters in separate sessions who even dared to bring up the RMB: “Any policy changes by China, including on the exchange rate, will be based on its assessment of its own interests, not on external pressure.” Meanwhile, “Chinese officials refused to sanction a statement at the Asia Pacific Economic Co-operation summit in Singapore that would have pressed it to adopt ‘market-oriented’ exchange rates for the yuan.” In fact, they have begun to push back against criticism, by arguing that a weak Yuan has actually been economically beneficial. “China keeping a basically stable exchange-rate policy is, in reality, good for the global economic recovery,” argued the Minister of Commerce .

This political/economic dichotomy is also evident within China. The Central Bank recently changed some of the language which governs its forex policy; going forward, the Yuan will apparently be tied to a basket of currencies, with its value also influenced by trends in capital flows. However, “The central bank’s position is getting a determined push-back from manufacturers and exporters –especially along China’s wealthy coast –who stand to reap significant gains in the short term.” Given that the decision to lift the RMB will ultimately be made in the political arena, it’s understandable that the latter group has such a strong bearing on the process.

As I indicated above, investors are cautiously optimistic that the government will eventually relent to its critics and allow the currency to resume its steady upward path. Futures prices have risen steadily since September, when they reflected a flat RMB over the next twelve months. According to one analyst, ” Officials may, starting in the second half of 2010, allow it to recoup the drop of about 10 percent on a trade-weighted basis it’s had since March.” Goldman Sachs, long respected for its economic forecasts, remains one of the lone naysayers, arguing that the Yuan isn’t going anywhere until at least 2011.

Personally, my money is an appreciation in the near-term, as soon as the first quarter of 2010. Chinese leaders are stubborn, but they aren’t stupid. It won’t be pressure from the US that will shake them from their moorings – but a further inflation of property and stock market bubbles and concerns over the economy’s unhealthy dependence on exports for growth.

The Pound fell versus most of 16 main traded currencies after one of the most respected financial institutions in the world affirmed that the credit situation in the U.K. remain as one of the most delicate among the wealthy nations, decreasing attractiveness for the British currency.(…)
Read the rest of Pound Declines on Pessimistic Credit Rating (159 words)

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South Africa is one of the world’s largest precious metals producers, and today, as the gold and platinum rose in a session of strong risk appetite, the African nation witnessed a strong bullish pattern in its currency’s chart, as optimism among traders increased.(…)
Read the rest of Gold Hits Record High Pushing South African Rand Up (63 words)

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These days, it’s hard to offer a fresh perspective on the Dollar. The factors driving its short-term momentum – namely low interest rates and its perception as a financial safe haven – have been in place for nearly a year. It’s long-term prognosis, meanwhile, also hasn’t changed much. Since the beginning of the decade, the Greenback has been in a state of perennial decline as a result of its twin deficits and the related notion that it will be soon be replaced as the world’s pre-eminent currency.

Since the last time I posted about the Dollar (October 6: Dollar’s Role as Reserve Currency in Jeopardy), then, there haven’t been many developments. Fears that oil will one day be priced and settled in an alternative currency – such as the Euro – continue to reverberate through the markets. Several ministers from OPEC countries have already officially dismissed such claims as baseless. A parallel debate is now taking place on the sidelines as to whether or not such a shift even matters.

Dean Baker argued in a recent article for Foreign Policy magazine, that pricing oil in Dollars represents a mere “accounting convention,” adopted by most simply by default, since the US is the cornerstone of the world economy. Argues Baker, “World oil production is a bit under 90 million barrels a day. If two-thirds of this oil is sold across national borders, then it implies a daily oil trade of 60 million barrels. If all of this oil is sold in dollars, then it means that oil consumers would have to collectively hold $4.2 billion to cover their daily oil tab.”

Unfortunately, Baker’s “simple arithmetic” is both erroneous and slightly irrelevant. Assuming a price of only $100 per barrel (pretty conservative if you believe the notion of peak oil), current consumption of 85 million barrels per day implies a daily turnover of $8.5 Billion per day, or $3+ Trillion per year. If the price doubles to $200 per barrel….well, you get the point.

Taking this line of reasoning further becomes somewhat problematic, however. First of all, while OPEC members currently hold the majority (70%+) of there reserves in Dollar-denominated assets, it’s unclear how this would change in the event that oil was no longer priced in Dollars. It’s conceivable that just as many of these Central Banks currently diversify their Dollar-denominated proceeds into other currencies, that they would “diversify” Euro-denominated proceeds back into the Dollar. Of course, it’s also conceivable that a combination of inertia and investment strategy would cause them to hold a larger portion of there reserves in Euros.

If OPEC Central banks continue to prefer Dollars, than Baker is right in arguing that the currency in which oil is priced has no implications outside of accounting. If, on the other hand, he is wrong, and a change in pricing causes/coincides with changing preferences, then the implications for the Dollar would be disastrous. [Consider that $3 Trillion/per year which is at stake currently represents more than 15% of total foreign ownership of US assets.] The problem is that we just don’t know.

Regardless, the status quo favors the Dollar, since creating a new reserve currency would take at least a decade, if not more. For that reason, the World’s Central Banks (we’re not just talking about OPEC anymore) continue to prefer Dollars. “In the five weeks through Oct. 7, foreign central banks bought more than $48.55 billion in Treasury securities, an average of $9.71 billion per week, according to the latest data from the Federal Reserve.” In addition, “Finance Minister Hirohisa Fujii said he expects the dollar will remain the key reserve currency for some time to come.” Private foreign investors, meanwhile, are dragging their heals a bit, perhaps waiting for the Dollar to fall further before jumping in. Asks one columnist rhetorically, “Why buy now if the dollar might be even weaker in six months’ time?”

What else is new? The US budget deficit came in at $1.4 Trillion for the fiscal year, the highest level since World War II. On the bright side, the deficit was $200-400 Billion less than earlier estimates. Meanwhile, members of the Federal Reserve’s Board of Governors restated the unlikelihood of higher rates in the immediate future. “Richard Fisher, president of the Dallas Fed and thought to be a rare hawk on the Fed’s Open Market Committee, chimed in that no one at the Fed thinks this is the time to raise interest rates.” Finally, the US trade deficit is once again narrowing, due in no small part to the declining Dollar.

At this point, it seems reasonable to assume that much of the bad news has already been priced into the Dollar. Sure, the Australian rate hikes came as a surprise and forced many to rethink their calculations. Investors have already begun to separate the healthy currencies from the sick (to borrow an analogy from a previous post), but that the Dollar would be grouped with the “sick” currencies has long been anticipated. Given that the currency has already fallen by double digits in 2009 and is nearing the record lows of 2008, some are wondering how long it can continue.

The Polish zloty has been one of the best emergent market currencies since the world start to post its first signs of economic improvement in the first semester of this year, and today after a central banker affirmations regarding the future of the Polish currency, the zloty rallied further among its Eastern European rivals.(…)
Read the rest of Polish Zloty Rallies on Central Bank Statements (147 words)

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Speculations suggesting that the world economic conditions will improve faster than previously imagined, helped stocks and commodities to rally today, consequently helping the Canadian dollar to grow versus its U.S. counterpart.(…)
Read the rest of Canadian Dollar Hits Record High on Economic Outlook (64 words)

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